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Fashion is in such a weird holding pattern right now. One day it’s a flashy designer revamp, the next it’s a global campaign for a bag that was new and exciting a decade ago.
In this edition: Robert’s bets on the commercial prospects for a historic season of designer debuts.
If companies can’t seem to decide whether they’re pushing creative innovation or continuity, fashion’s audience is similarly struggling to determine what they actually want. An online discourse about how fashion had become too boring and same-same has been quickly replaced by cries of “This doesn’t look like [insert brand]” and “Where would I wear that?”
Take the response to Chanel’s Métiers d’Art show in New York last week: I keep hearing that it wasn’t “Chanel enough,” but never for the same reason. Some detractors say it was too pedestrian, leaving them pining for Lagerfeld’s statement-making glamour of ages past, where he’d show cavewomen with teased hair in head-to-toe faux fur one season and shimmering sea creatures the next. And what was Chanel doing in the literal smelly subway? Others said the opposite, maintaining the looks were too “out there.”
Good on newsletter writer Amy Odell for getting into it with a handful of VICs (very important clients) and their stylists. Her quotes of shoppers fed up with rising prices and unwelcome changes to design circulated widely on social media, resonating with the growing sense that this year of creative director turnover has been frustrating for some and confusing for many.
There’s plenty of reason to take top clients’ complaints with a grain of salt. The most loyal, highest-spending customers often resist change: If they didn’t like things the way they were, what were they doing shelling out hundreds of thousands of dollars per year? Complaining about luxury purchases is also a popular way of bragging about them in some circles.
This is nonetheless a customer to keep an eye on. In many ways VICs have been primed to unplug from fashion by rising prices (even rich people don’t want to be taken for a ride), declining quality and fatigue with being sold so much, so aggressively by brands that are increasingly competing for the same handful of top clients. A designer change can be just the excuse they need.
As many as 50 million clients exited the luxury market in recent years, according to Bain. But analysts say recent efforts to curb price inflation and boost creativity are likely to pay off in the year to come. Macro-economic conditions may have bottomed out in the key Chinese market. UBS estimates that listed luxury brands will grow an average of 5 percent next year, following broadly flat sales in 2025.
Plenty of brands will still find themselves in a tricky position. Look at what’s happening at Valentino, which sources say has seen a steep decline in revenues and profit since changing designers last year. Alessandro Michele’s work for the brand is gorgeous, but there just hasn’t been a sufficient flow of new customers to make up for loyal clients who pulled back following Pierpaolo Piccioli’s exit. Owners Mayhoola and Kering have had to inject €100 million ($117 million) in the brand, Reuters reported last month.
Valentino’s challenges show how bold designer revamps based on the assumption that a brand can lose one client and gain two are harder to pull off in a depressed demand environment, in which traffic is only expected to incrementally improve next year. Meanwhile, price hikes have shrunk the addressable market for luxury in addition to making new design ideas look like risky investments compared to classic styles. (Luxury fashion brands have managed to rein in price inflation — average prices were up by just 1 to 3 percent across listed players in the first nine months of the year, according to a recent note by Citi.)
Earlier this year, I wrote about how creative refreshes on the runway needed to be accompanied by soul-searching throughout fashion businesses in order to reinvigorate demand. Rather than moving as a pack, brands need to innovate and differentiate across campaigns and communications, commercial products, pricing, store concepts and client outreach in order to stick the landing on their revamps.
Now that the dust has settled on new designers’ debuts, the real test begins.
As High Margin signs off for winter hiatus, I’m willing to share some bets on how the recent designer revamps will play out commercially, based on what we’ve seen so far.
Likely Winners
Chanel
The reception for Matthieu Blazy’s collections hasn’t been unanimous in the wider market. And this is probably the brand I trust least to get price inflation under control.
Still, his first two runways have wowed critics and dominated the social media discourse, with people talking about Chanel in a way they haven’t in years. I believe the creative changes at Chanel are on track to have a big commercial impact, even if they’ve made a few key clients bristle.
Bottega Veneta (Kering)
Louise Trotter’s first show kept up the momentum on craft innovation while introducing a message about ultra-refined wardrobe dressing that hadn’t been as present on the runways of BV’s previous two creative directors. The show resonated powerfully online, as did the most recent campaign starring Jacob Elordi and lensed by Duane Michals.
The brand also has the confidence of Kering’s new management, which could unlock big investments to support growth.
Loewe (LVMH)
Jack McCollough and Lazaro Hernandez’ debut for Loewe reassured the market that one of the sector’s most resilient brands can keep up its cool factor and continue to grow following Jonathan Anderson’s departure.
So far their take on the brand is a bit less conceptual, a bit more youthful, sexy and relaxed. The brand has been savvy about keeping its hero bags in the spotlight during the transition, with massive outdoor ad campaigns dedicated to its core category.
Wait and See
Dior (LVMH)
Dior’s menswear debut by Jonathan Anderson felt instantly cooler and more relevant. For womenswear, the brand will need to carefully manage the transition from Maria Grazia Chiuri’s take on the brand — prized by customers as easy to wear and style — to Anderson’s more experimental sensibility. Dior needs to “mind the gap” while Anderson and teams craft the right commercial expression to back up its new creative thrust. Products are set to arrive from January.
Gucci (Kering)
Demna’s first collection was a curated survey of “greatest hits” from Gucci’s archives, followed by a pre-fall lookbook that was more focused, leaning into the silhouette and vibes of the brand’s Tom Ford glory days.
Both releases were well-received — with a fashion film directed by Spike Jonze garnering buzz — but felt like transitional exercises. I do not believe nostalgia can sustain a brand at this scale: The jury remains out at least until Demna’s first full runway show in February.
Balenciaga (Kering)
Pierpaolo Piccioli is a couture authority with a deep affinity for the Balenciaga archive. There’s potential here. But his debut show and some of the brand’s recent imagery have felt a bit disjointed, perhaps weighed down by a mandate to build on predecessor Demna’s high-low business blending streetwear and ultra-modern couture while simultaneously taking the brand in a dressier, more timeless direction. Going into 2026, Balenciaga is entering a key window to clarify what it stands for. Watch for Piccioli’s co-ed pre-fall (his menswear debut) set to be released mid-January.
Jil Sander (OTB)
Simone Bellotti’s debut show was a pristine return to form celebrating Jil Sander’s founding codes. I’ve heard little discussion of the brand since, but it’s possible OTB is holding its marketing firepower for when products arrive in store. Creating demand at today’s prices will be a challenge in any case for a brand at this scale.
Rocky Seas Ahead
Jean Paul Gaultier (Puig)
With a single look — a nude illusion bodysuit complete with curly trompe l’oeil body hairs and a photorealistic penis — Duran Lantink put years of industry goodwill on the line. The pressure is on to get perceptions of his taste level back on track.
Mugler (L’Oréal)
Miguel Castro Freitas dove into a rich palette of fashion references to inform his debut show for Mugler — taking the brand in a less radical, more researched direction that felt instantly more wearable and more elevated. But the preoccupation with classic glamour did not feel particularly timely, nor relevant for a label that has essentially been a buzz factory for its perfume. If Mugler’s clothes won’t recapture the zeitgeist (the way the brand’s costumes for “WAP” did a few years ago) then they’ll need to actually sell, and selling clothes is not L’Oréal’s core expertise. A tricky one.
That’s a wrap on High Margin Season 1 — thanks so much for reading. The tip line is open, as ever, at robert.williams@businessoffashion.com. See you in the New Year.