Even as global consumer sentiment has plummeted toward record lows in the latter half of 2025, shoppers are still planning to spend more than ever this Black Friday weekend. Per Adobe, the five days spanning Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday are set to generate $43.7 billion in the US alone, 17 percent of spend for the entire holiday season and a 6.3 percent increase year-on-year (down from 8.2 percent last year).
Beauty is one of the three main categories expecting to cash in alongside clothing and electronics, said Pierre Dupreelle, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group. But unlike those other booming segments, beauty is buoyed by young consumers, Dupreelle added, citing skincare and fragrance as the major drivers. “What’s also unique is that along with gifting, there is a lot of self-buying.”
Despite these unique advantages, the sale season won’t be a cakewalk for beauty brands and retailers, who have to speak to price-anxious customers amid tightening budgets and intense competition. Discounts remain important, but are almost beside the point, as shoppers who’ve spent the month bombarded by sales seek out an extra element to push their purchase over the line.
A report from NielsenIQ revealed that 62 percent of consumers will be driven by brand experience this holiday season, compared to 53 percent who will be driven by price competitiveness. Those experiences will be cultivated not only with gifts and bundles but new digital tools, like large language models or buy now, pay later schemes to get shoppers to purchase.
“As some of these consumers trade down or cut back on spending retailers still have an opportunity to capture their beauty spend if they have the right value proposition for customers,” said Manola Soler, senior director in the consumer and retail group of Alvarez & Marsal.
The Gift of a Good Experience
Though it’s known as a global retail holiday, the crowd surges and mad dash deals of Black Friday don’t necessarily conjure up a festive image. In this increasingly competitive omnichannel landscape, brands and retailers are relying on upgrading consumer experience — with loyalty rewards, free gifts and in-store delights — to encourage the spending spirit.
“The balance between brick‑and‑mortar and online channels is shifting, but both remain critical touch points for holiday spending,” said Jacqueline Flam, the managing director of beauty and health at NielsenIQ. In-store sales are critical for fragrance in particular, which 71 percent of consumers plan to gift this holiday season, though blind buys are becoming increasingly popular. Dupreelle said accessible niche fragrance like Phlur or Glossier and ultra-niche luxury labels like Parfums de Marley and Creed are driving demand.
“The latter are a very high price point, and I think that’s where consumers definitely engage on by Friday to make sure that they’re getting deals on purchases that are slightly higher than the average,” he added.
Mia McGrath, a Gen-Z influencer who shares financial advice on TikTok online under the moniker The Frugal Chic, said that a restock of her Diptyque fragrance is the only thing on her hitlist this weekend — and that she’ll be eyeing up a “luxury” retailer with a “curated selection” like Space NK to make the purchase. Competition among retailers for fragrance sales will be fierce: both Ulta and Sephora have perfume-specific incentives, with the former offering a limited-edition robe with fragrance purchases, while the latter is offering its members quadruple points.
Many such loyalty schemes or member-only incentives are being offered across the board by retailers and brands alike. While all Sephora shoppers will be able to save up to 50 percent on select brands like Nars and Rare Beauty, exclusive savings and discounts will be made available to its “Beauty Insider” members. “Loyalty in beauty remains stronger towards retailers than brands for higher income consumers,” said Soler.
Brands and retailers are also expanding their scope beyond discounts to include rewards like free gifts as a chance to “nurture customers at a time when, if you can’t give a discount, give them something else,” said Olivia Ford, performance lead at beauty marketing agency Foundation. Dieux orders over $125 will receive a miniature of the hero moisturiser Instant Angel, while shoppers at Gisou will be gifted a metal hair pin with parcels over $75. Meanwhile, Charlotte Tilbury is opting for a classic two-for-one proposition on select products like its Airbrush Flawless Finish powder.
The ultimate Black Friday experience — the type that will tempt customers back — comes from combining approaches. Along with its tiered discounts, Sephora is offering a gift of a sample bag of minis from brands like Urban Decay, Haus Labs and Fenty Beauty to members of its free “Beauty Insider” loyalty scheme who spend over $90. At Ilia Beauty, VIP shoppers unlock a slightly better discount (25 percent, compared to the sitewide 20 percent), and all orders over $75 receive a free full-sized Complexion Stick.
The Omnichannel Cyber Monday
Perhaps the biggest departure from Black Fridays past is that more shoppers than ever plan to use AI tools, like LLMs, to discover new products and compare the best deals.
LLMs have seen a 1200 percent increase in traffic year-on-year, according to international digital agency Dept. “The purchase window is getting a lot shorter, so people are using LLMs for gift ideas and inspiration and then going right to buying those in a much shorter period of time,” said Sam Huston, Dept consumer lead. Google, hungry for its own clicks, has been driving users to its Shopping tool before it leads them to another website, Huston added.
Adobe predicts Cyber Monday, like last year, will be the biggest day of spending, meaning brands and retailers need to level up their digital strategies, implementing “generative engine optimisation” to show up favourably in LLMs, as well as establishing a strong presence on TikTok Shop, which an increasing number of shoppers are turning to for their beauty purchases.
The rise in AI and TikTok Shop go hand in hand thanks to the latter platform’s rapid discovery-to-checkout process. “That content to the commerce window is so short, and anything that a brand can do to make that shorter and reduce friction is really important,” said Huston.
In the lead-up to Black Friday, Australian haircare brand BondiBoost dropped its newest product, Strawberry Gum, as a TikTok shop-exclusive. “It’s a huge moment to acquire new customers,” said Julia Ramanadhan, BondiBoost’s global president. “With our retailers we fit into their promotional program, whereas to a certain level, we have a little bit more control and speed that we can implement with TikTok.”
Another way that brands are reducing friction is with buy now, pay later options: around 40 percent of British shoppers and up to 60 percent of millennial and Gen-Z shoppers in the US are planning to use BNPL when checking out on Black Friday weekend. Due to its popularity, savvy brands and retailers won’t just offer the option at check out, but advertise the option in both its marketing and individual product pages.
“TikTok is shifting discovery, driving viral trends and influencing purchase decisions this holiday season,” said Flam. “AI‑driven personalisation and social commerce is changing how shoppers engage with the category.” And while its too late to cook up a new digital strategy in time for the weekend, its never too early to start thinking about next year.
Sign up to The Business of Beauty newsletter, your complimentary, must-read source for the day’s most important beauty and wellness news and analysis.